PS3 Price Over Time
so. there’s this pseudo-report that came out today from “seeking alpha” — whatever that is.
anyway, it’s very good. i actually agree with everything they’ve said. analyst todd mitchell from kaufman bros. appears to have a good head on his shoulders.
i should go check his starmine rating on yahoo. hang on….
there he is: Mitchell, Todd. too bad he doesn’t have an accuracy rating. somebody should really figure out how to accurately measure this stuff.
as i was saying, i read this report summary thing. good stuff. prompted me to put down on paper (blog) even a few thought rolling around in my head. i actually posted it as a comment over at joystiq, but here’s the results:
39. “They will wait, like me, for PS3 to come down in price and be more available”
heh. every time someone says this, another ps3 game dies.
let’s do some math!
so, i’m pretty sure everyone will agree that consoles prices come down about 20% per year. for example, last generation’s systems would go something like this:
year 1: $300
year 2: $240
year 3: $192
year 4: $154
year 5: $123
not exact, but a pretty decent “rough estimate.”
now, let’s look at this generation’s consoles:
year 1: $400
year 2: $320, $600, $250
year 3: $256, $480, $200
year 4: $205, $384, $160
year 5: $163, $307, $128
so, all of you folks who are waiting for the ps3 to come down in price before getting one are giving the 360 and the wii a crazy software ramp-up period.
what does that mean?
that means without an install base, the ps3 won’t get the software support it needs. that’s why it dominated last generation — not because developers loved sony, but because they enough units out there that making exclusives made financial sense.
if you don’t buy a ps3 in its early life, you’re guaranteeing the only games you’ll ever see on it will be first party and ports.
Posted at 3:19PM on Dec 15th 2006 by m3mnoch 7 stars
i always knew in my head that everyone who says “i’m waiting on the price to drop” was in for a hard time. tho, looking at the actual numbers penned, it seems even more painful than i imagined.
the 20% edict means 4 years of xbox 360 games before the ps3 even reaches the launch price of the 360. who’s going to hold out that long? even then, who’s going to buy a ps3 for twice what the competition is selling them for — still! after four years!
you know what the heartbreaker is for the ps3 tho? blu-ray. (heh. you saw that one coming, eh?)
the price on stand-alone blu-ray players will fall even faster than the ps3 prices. for 2 reasons:
- stand-alone players don’t have cell or rsx parts to pay for too. for other players, it’s just a manufacturing process for an optical drive that needs to be refined.
- sony can’t afford to subsidize like they are forever. the ps3 needs to make money — badly.
stand-alone blu-ray players will be cheaper than the ps3.
other game consoles will be cheaper than the ps3.