Michael Pachter is Wrong
so. i’m just going to run through a few thoughts of mine on the podcast. they might not make sense if you haven’t listened to it.
japan can support 30 million consoles?
well. sure, at $299 per console they can. however, at $600? uh. no. for example, at $299 (yeah, i know they take percentage drops. that doesn’t matter for this tho as it’s a percentage — not a concrete number. meaning, the ps3 will never, ever, ever be $150 and still making money.) we’re looking at about US$9 billion for 30 million consoles in japan. now, push that up to this generation’s average of $400 per console?
yep. you got it: $12 billion.
that’s 30% more. so, people in japan have — suddenly — 30% more money? wait. where does hdtv upgrades fit into that?
no, michael. japan will not support 30 million of this next generation of consoles.
120 million consoles for us and europe?
1) japan is a shrinking game market.
2) europe is the fastest growing market.
3) the us is still growing.
4) almost 8 times as many people account for only 4 times the consoles?
japan has 127 million people. the us has 300 million. europe has 700 million. assuming japan is “saturated” since it’s declining, by his prediction for japan, that means 1 console for every 4 people. that means 250 million consoles should be the “saturation point” for the us and europe.
i don’t think it’ll be 250 million in this generation, but, i don’t think it’ll be 120 million either. expect well north of 120 million consoles in the americas and europe and slightly south of 30 million consoles in japan.
credibility? meh. “he said, i said” style debate.
japanese market first?
huh? primary market is japan? is that why the us has 2.5 times the population but is scheduled to get 4 times the consoles? (ha! actually, i suppose that may not be true either. heh. poor sony.)
the wii is the same as the original xbox for programming?
i won’t even touch that one except to say the “raw power” may be similar to the original xbox (it’s actually more) but, programming for the original xbox was almost exactly the same as programming for a pc-based x86 platform — not the gamecube.
the wii is like programming for a gamecube, man. not an xbox. powerpc programming isn’t the same as x86 programming.
and, the graphics card is basically the same? hello? the xbox had an nvidia card. the wii? ati. (please refer to all the reasons why 360 back-compat games are emulated and not run natively.) they need new tools and new techniques to create wii games. i’d say the wii and original xbox can handle a similar “weight” of art assets, but, well — you have to recreate those for every game anyway.
damn. okay. i touched it….
credibility? shot to hell.
no more than 4 million subscribers for mmogs?
(keeping in mind his qualification that it apparently was in the us and europe) him trying to “wave off” the question by comparing wow numbers to his estimates is cute. well — at least it would be if wow didn’t only account for half of game subscriptions, michael.
credibility? shot to hell and in the toilet.
then he goes no to talk about how the wii is going to sell. he’s mostly correct except for the whole sony coming back thing.
microsoft head-fake? yep. more stuff that makes sense.
credibility? building back up a bit.
happily, he calls out on know about optical storage being enough. good job. 9 gigs is enough. sony’s wrong.
credibility? on the right track.
he participated in the conspiracy about microsoft holding back units at launch?
this is an easy one: money left on the table. especially with consoles selling for $1500 on ebay. no conspiracy, man. especially with their vaunted “race to 10 million units” they’ve been talking about.
pricing consoles lower?
mainstream adoption. for specific, “single-use” hardware, it needs a low price point. otherwise, why would you get a game machine when you can buy a pc and get a lot more flexibility with your purchase?
duh. consoles need to be a commodity. $1200 is not a commodity price.
well. and i suppose that the video game business is a software business and NOT a hardware business. hardware has anemic profit margins. just ask microsoft what software margins are like.
so. let’s see. how do you make back the money you spend on developing games? that’s right! sell millions of copies!
how do you sell millions of copies? that’s right! get millions units of your hardware out there!
how do you get millions of units of hardware out in the public? that’s right! price it at a loss to get it into as many hands as possible.
it’s the razor/razor blades thing, man. you know that.
it’s akin to “what if movie studios were the only ones who made dvd players?” don’t you think they’d practically give away their dvd players to get people to buy their movies?
mcfly? anyone home?
credibility? pissed on in the gutter.
now… the doozy. he only “works” 5 or 10 hours a week and gets paid handsomely?
this guy’s a tard. and he accused microsoft, sony and nintendo of being arrogant? arg!
looking a bit farther out?
there’s not going to be a next generation as we know it? game design isn’t going to harness the hardware?
what on earth is this dork talking about? it’s called middleware, fool. the game designers aren’t harnessing it. it’s the tool developers who will. there are people trying to wring everything out of it they can. it has nothing to do with game designers anymore. there are business models in place that subsist on their ability to wring everything they can out of the hardware — not to make games, but to make the hardware perform.
the hardware will be wrung dry.
and, going forward, we’re going to need a crazy amount of more processor? why? procedural content. art resources and programming resources are going to come back into parity. it’ll be a fundamental shift in the way things are done.
more programming. less hand-created art.
credibility? well in the negatives.
michael pachter may have the connections, but, he doesn’t have the technical knowledge necessary to do the job of analyzing the game industry. financial, maybe. technical no.
we need a new analyst.