Would a Delay Actually Hurt Sony?
human kevlar posted a question over in his comment wondering what i thought of a particular article. it was a pretty interesting read, so i thought i’d post my thoughts here.
i agree with the article from thestreet.com (stupid multipage warning) that missing a spring delay really won’t hurt the ps3’s chances much. there will be a pretty substantial stock drop, but that’s about it. as long as they actually launch by the holiday season, in north america, it’ll be fine.
a few things are at stake tho.
where to launch
what if they miss spring and summer? what happens if they don’t want to do a multi-territory launch? they saw microsoft get hammered on supply issues. i’m not thinking they want to suffer through the same thing.
the problem is where to launch first.
if they pass up the u.s. to launch in japan, they are missing the mighty black-friday-ensuing-madness that is the north american shopping season. that’d be bad. however, if they don’t launch in japan, how many will buy 360’s in protest? prolly none. but, they’d buy the shit out of the revolution.
publishers will really only buy the ‘holy grail of gaming hardware’ thing for so long. for every month the ps3 isn’t out, that’s another month of losing cross platform sales. why devote resources to building a game for the ps3 when they are just going to sit there? (witness fight night)
publishers may be evil, but they aren’t dumb. if the ps3 misses the holiday season, the 360 is going to have a huge advantage for installed base. and they know that the ps3 will have similar shortages as the 360. maybe not as bad. maybe worse. but, it’ll be about the same. i’m sure i’m not the only one who remembers them blaming the whole sorry state of holiday game sales on 360 shortages.
all of that just says to me “get it out. even if it’s just for the 360. we can always port it later.” that’s basically the definition of an xbox 360 ‘exclusive’ right there. and, it’s just another game that won’t make it into the ps3 launch ‘window’ library.
i think any publishers that arean’t contractually committed are looking hard at that. especially come e3.
360 hitting its price stride
another bummer about missing the holiday season is the timing for a 360 price drop. we already know that the revolution is going to be really
cheap inexpensive (comparitively). with the 360 hitting a price drop when the ps3 hits the market? well. that just brings down the mean average cost of a gaming console.
and, of course, exaggerates just how expensive the ps3 would be. in western cultures, price drives adoption.
they could delay forever in japan
i’m sticking hard to this one: japan doesn’t matter.
sure, it’d be nice for microsoft if the xbox 360 sold well in japan. tho, really, i don’t think they care. if they did, there’d be some japanese-style rpgs. instead, microsoft is courting japanese developers to build western style games. *cough* ninety-nine nights *cough*
their politically correct ‘it’s a marathon’ statements they’ve made on penetrating the japanese market are just that — a politically correct way of saying ‘we don’t really care about japan.’
me? i’ve never really been politically correct.